الفهرس 
فهرس المحتوياتيوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
Water is not only an important resource but also it is source of life. We all share in the responsibility toward it to ensure sustainable and healthy and safe water supply to our society. Water is from the natural resources that is a priority to study especially after its entrance a phase of scarcity with the increasing population that led to increased demands from different sectors which also led to a decrease in per capita share of water in Egypt than the minimum limit specified by the international statistics.
In 2010, the per capita reached 700 m2 per year and expected to reach 852 m3 in 2025. There is a relationship that cannot be hidden by the examinations between the demands for agricultural and food products and the demand for water. This indicates a new concept linking the international trade of goods and services with the concept of hypothetical water trade. The hypothetical water for a certain crop requested for production in its consumption place, which is the water contained in the product and not in its true form. Hypothetical water trading points to the idea of imported exported goods that include water determine the amount of water entering or leaving country gives an actual picture of the extent of the water deficit in this country.
Egypt is considered of the countries that face a real challenge toward its limited water resources in light of the population increase that is accompanied by an increase in the demand of water. In between the current situation of Egypt’s water resources and the development services to cope with the population density, it is necessary to follow all water policies aimed at rationalizing demand and increased supply.
The study aimed at the concept of virtual water and how to benefit from this concept in achieving water savings at the local level to face the deficit in water supply in Egypt, which is expected to increase in the coming years by studying the current of water in Egypt and virtual water and its impact on the foreign trade of agricultural commodities.
And this through the following subjects:
1- Study the current status of water resources during the study period by identifying water resources in Egypt and the size of their available ones.
2- Identify the current status of water resources and their use in the agricultural sector by studying the criteria for economic efficiency of irrigation.
3- Study the economic profits of the hypothetical water status of agricultural commodities through studying the volume of agricultural trade and a study of the relationship between trading goods, services and water resources.
In achieving its objectives; the study relied on time series data during 2005-2017 obtained from several sources, the most important of which are the publications of the Central Agency for public Mobilization, statistics and published and unpublished data issued by the Ministry of Resources and Irrigation and the Ministry of Agriculture and Land reclamation in addition to some research and correspondence that discussed some aspects. Related to the study, it also intends in its analysis of data on descriptive and quantitative economic analysis through the use of some statistical analysis methods such as linear excess in its simple form as well as using the linear programming method to renew the best combinations of different agricultural activities in order to reach the optimal use of water resources through crop composition effectiveness optimization.
- The study began with the introduction, the problem of the study, and its objectives, the data was issued, the study method and its plan followed by three main chapters. The first chapter is the theoretical framework and the reference review, the second chapter which dealt with the current status of water resources and their case in agriculture in two sub chapters. The first sub chapter dealt with the current situation of water resources in Egypt and their second with the features of the economics of setting virtual water for the most important agricultural crops. The third chapter dealt with the optimal crop composition in light of water resources management policies in Egypt.
- The study was based on the following main results:
1- The Egyptian water balance took a decreasing trend, reaching its lowest value in (2009) reaching about (1.44) which found a deficit of about (0.65) on average for the period (2005-2017).
2- Stability of Egyptian structure of available water except for agricultural wastewater recycling resources, which is the only resource that affects water revenue volume change. This resource is dependent in its source as it is affected by the water resources coming from the Nile river.
3- Total water resources and uses have taken on upward trend which created a water deficit where the increase in the volume of water uses is greater than the increase in the water reference volume and created a deficit during an average accordance period of 0.65 billion cubic meters.
4- Decrease water per capita about (979.33 m3) to (799.47 m3) through 2005-2017.
5- The total export value has taken a general statistically significant increasing trend reaching about (3.18) million pounds. The total import value has taken a general statistically significant increasing trend reaching about (1.21) million pounds.
6- The total agricultural export value has taken a general statistically significant increase toward 3144.8 million pounds and the total agricultural imports about 8.48 million pounds.
7- The largest return of hypothetical water unit implicit in the quantities of exported crops (strawberries then tomatoes then beans then gapes).
8- The largest return of hypothetical water unit implicit in the quantities of imported crops (apples then beans then wheat).
And by studying the proposed crop structures and alternatives in order to reach the optimum crop composition through the use of malti-objective linear programing.
The following results have been reached.
1. The first model estimated according to the goal of maximizing the net feddan return is the best model proposed in this study, as it achieved the highest net per acre return of about 70065 million pounds.
2. The third model estimated according to the goal of minimizing water needs is the best model proposed in this study, as the water needs decreased by about 1200 million cubic meter optimize toward 2.74 percent about the current crop composition
Recommendations:
In the light of obtained results, the study reached these important recommendations:
(1) The need of government’s adaptation to water and agricultural policies that reduce the effect of the internal challenges to achieve the water security in Egypt especially the increase of water benefits, population increase and wrong agricultural practices.
(2) Increase the volume of the Egyptian water revenue to achieve the Egyptian water security through:
- Activating upper Nile projects with the Nile basin countries.
- Completing field irrigation development projects and spreading it to all agricultural lands in Egypt, sewage water treatment and recycling agricultural wastewater.
- Periodic maintenance of the main and subsidiary irrigation channels to raise the efficiency of water transport from 70% to 80%.
(3) The need of cultivation expansion of strawberries, tomatoes, green beans, and grapes in installing the composition of the crop, if possible, due to the increased material returns with international currencies and the increase in the economic return of exported water unit.
(4) It is advisable to import apples, beans and wheat and reduce the cultivated areas of possible to decrease the economic return of exported water unit.