الفهرس | يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام |
المستخلص The Summary: The Wheat has strategic importance an important food of the population is linked to the biological needs and food habits, which are expanding in this pattern of food in rural and urban areas, Based on this as important The problem Of wheat Derives Their importance which Summarized in several axes, First: Domestic production of wheat Faced By Scarcity of Egyptian agricultural productive resources, And Mutually competitive production On agricultural land resource, Led to Failure Attempts to Achieve selfsufficiency, Local wheat production is unable to meet the needs of domestic consumption, The wheat gap Estimated at 4.97 million tons on average for the period 1999-2003 Equivalent to Self- sufficiency rate of about 56.8%, While the size of the gap was about 7.1 million tons on average for the period 2004-2008 Equivalent to Self-sufficiency rate of about 52.4%. Second: In spite of Egypt suffering from a large deficit in the general budget, a huge increase in foreign and domestic debts, a large decline in foreign cash balances, But the Import wheat from the outside bill Increasing a steadily, Because the Egyptian imports of wheat amounted to about $ 682 million on average for the period 1999-2003 Equivalent to About 20.3% of the value of agricultural imports For the same period which amounted to 3358 million dollars, Then increased the value of wheat imports to about 1528 million dollars on average for the period 2004-2008 represented a rate of about 28.4% of the value of agricultural imports for the same period which amounted to 5373 million dollars. Third: Fluctuations in the global market for wheat As a result of price speculation and climate changes Affecting In wheat production centers in the world. So it was important to Study the possibility of increasing the domestic production of wheat By studying the factors affecting wheat production in Egypt The main objective of the study is identifying the most important factors affecting wheat production in Egypt, To achieve this objective there Has been study of sub-goals, which were as follows: First: Display and analysis of the current status of the most important global variables affecting the Egyptian wheat sector, And to identify the position of Egypt relative to the global wheat market in terms of production and consumption, imports and inventories. Second: Display and analysis of the current status of the production of wheat in Egypt, and Identify The most important local factors specific to the production of wheat in Egypt, Through the study of the evolution of Production and cultivated area and productivity, The impact of productivity determinants, The impact of the use of non-certified seeds on Production, And analyzing of the impact of policy varieties on Production, And analyze the impact of pricing policy, supply response of the wheat crop and the impact of production costs on production and the impact of the cultivated area by clover to wheat production and the impact of the production of untraditional feed on wheat production Third: presentation and analysis of economic indicators of the current global situation and distribution of wheat in the world, and the evolution of the global consumption and foreign trade, both exports and imports, inventory and prices, The main consuming countries, the most important export and import and stockpile of wheat, the main consuming countries, the most important export and import and stockpile of wheat. Fourth: view and analyze Egypt’s imports of wheat in terms of quantity and value, the price of import and geographical distribution of the most important trading partners, and seasonality of the world market prices of wheat, and indicators of import performance, and consumption of individual and national, and the size of the stock, and a gap of wheat, rates of self-sufficiency, estimate of Food Security Coefficient, and strategic inventory. Fifth: display and analyze interconnected and mutually relations between the most important variables affecting to Egyptian wheat production and are influenced its production, stocks, consumption and importation. Through estimate of econometric model for Economic variables affecting in the food gap for wheat, prediction of the values of those variables and forecast values derived variables until 2020. The study included five chapters in addition to the conclusions and recommendations and a summary in Arabic and another in English, and the appendices and references, The first chapter included two parts, First has review the benchmarking studies and previous research, which includes a discussion and analysis of the most important previous studies with a strong relationship with the wheat production in Egypt and economic variables related, The second chapter discusses the theoretical framework, which includes a review of some of the related supply response of wheat crop concepts, some of the concepts related the econometric models, and methods of estimating the consumption of wheat in Egypt. The second chapter included a study of the production of wheat in Egypt and the world, it shows: 1. The increase in world wheat production, which averaged about 616.51 million tons during the study period (1995-2012) at about 6.69 million tons per year, with the stability of the area planted and increasing productivity. 2. wheat production is concentrated in a few countries and international entities, and Egypt is ranked eighth among the countries in the world in terms of productivity per unit area and comes Twenty-one ranking in terms of area planted, and ranked fourteenth in terms of the amount of production 3. Egypt’s production of wheat, which averaged about 7.55 million tons during the study period (2000-2012) increased by about 196.6 thousand tons per year, with an increasing cultivated area of about 71.7 thousand Feddans per year, The relative stability of productivity on average by about 2.705 tons per Feddan. 4. Average annual production of certified seeds of wheat during the study period was about 37.3 thousand tons, enough to plant 497 thousand Feddans, With a gap in the area planted seeds from other sources, estimated at 2.3 million Feddans, certified seed coverage ratio reached only about 18% of the total wheat area in Egypt, and that gap is growing by about 103 thousand tons per year, and coverage ratio decreased about 1% per year. 5. It turns out there is a difference between the cultivated varieties in wheat productivity in most governorates, and it can through replacement top varieties in the average productivity alternative to other varieties low productivity increase total production of wheat and filling part of the food gap in wheat. 6. Results of the statistical estimation of the model of the supply response of wheat crop during the study period showed a positive relationship between the cultivated area of wheat in the current year and the farmgate price of wheat in the previous season, and the existence of an inverse relationship between the relative percentage of the cost per acre of wheat crop compared to the yield of clover in the previous year. 7. The increase in area planted to wheat by thousand feddans lead to reduce area planted clover about 0.584 thousand feddans, and that the increase in the clover area of $ thousand feddans will lead to a decline in wheat area of about 1.525 thousand feddans, which reflects the nature of the replacement competitive situation between crops, and it can not continue to expand in wheat area at the expense of clover area unless a suitable replacement of green fodder available Or feed dry unconventional. 8. Expansion in the production of non-conventional feed produced from the recycling of farm waste and used as alternatives to feed on clover which is the more importantly Competitor for the cultivation of wheat in the winter season will lead to reduce area planted with clover and the increase in the area planted to wheat. The fourth chapter Search Wheat consumption in Egypt and the world, and explained that: 1- Group of China, Pakistan and India’s larger states in the number of inhabitants and the highest consumption of wheat has achieved partial or total self-sufficiency of wheat in the interests of the economies of the countries that have reduced the proportion of self-sufficiency of wheat, particularly Egypt. 2- Average world wheat consumption was about 484.4 million tons and is growing at about 8.5 million tones per annum during the period (1995- 2012). 3- China is the world’s largest wheat consuming an average of about 98.1 million tons increase of about 18.3% of the total global consumption as the average for the period (2008-2012), Egypt ranks eighth in the world rankings at about 15.58 million tons represented a rate of about 2.9% of the world. 4- The proportion of the consumption of the top five countries globally, about 46.1% of the total global consumption and the consumption rate of ten countries around 62.1% of the average global consumption during the period (2008-2012). 5- Average world wheat stocks amounted 169.6 million tons, has been marked disparity values from year to year increases and decreases, no significant directional changes happening in it. 6- Inventory ratio of the top five countries worldwide amounted to about 60.0% of the global total average inventory for the period of the study, and the proportion of the stock of the ten most important countries of the world amounted to about 73.5% of the world. 7- The average national consumption of wheat in Egypt was estimated at 13.078 million tons during the period (1995-2012), and was estimated at 15.25 million tons during the third period (2007-2012) and is growing at about 332.1 thousand tons per year. 8- Average amount per capita consumption of wheat was estimated at 180 kg / year during the study period (1995-2012), and was estimated at 188 kg / year in the third period (2007-2012). Increasing by about 1.31 kg / year. 9- The average amount of the stock of wheat in Egypt was estimated at 3.159 million tons during the period (1995-2012), and was estimated at about 5.265 million tons during the third period (2007-2012), and is growing by about 293 thousand tons per year. 10-The average size of the wheat gap reached about 5.984 million tons during the study period (1995-2012), and was estimated at 7.24 million tons in the third period (2007-2012), and is growing at about 157.33 thousand tons annually. 11-Wheat self-sufficiency rate was estimated at 54.2% during the study period (1995-2012), and was estimated at 52.5% in the third period (2007-2012), a fluctuating rate does not have a general trend towards an increase or decrease. 12-The food security coefficient estimated at 0.02 to the average study period (1995-2012). And also estimated at about 0:02 in the third period (2007-2012). 13-The size of the strategic reserve, which raises The food security coefficient to the minimum acceptable rate of 0.5 at about 7.625 million tons of wheat, according to the average of the third period (2007-2012). 14-The annual average of the world’s wheat exports amounted about 122.3 million tons, increasing at about 2.76 million tons per year during the period (1995-2012). 15-The United States is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, as it contributes at about 28.6 million tons, equivalent rate of about 20.1% of the total world exports on average for the period (2008-2012). 16-Wheat exports concentrated in a limited number of countries in the world where controlled five countries about 68.9% of the total wheat exports in the world, equivalent to ten countries exports about 93.4% of those exports on average for the period (2008-2012). 17-The annual average of the world’s wheat imports amounted 121.7 million tons during the period (1995-2012), and is growing at about 2.7 million tons per year during the same period. 18-Egypt is the world’s largest importers of wheat, where imports around 10.2 million tons, equivalent rate of about 7.4% of the total world imports on average for the period (2008-2012). 19-Distracting wheat imports in a large number of countries in the world where imports top five countries importing ratio estimated at about 26.3% of total world imports, the imports of ten countries around 43.4% of the global average of imports for the period (2008-2012). 20-Average Egypt’s imports of wheat was estimated at 6.624 million tons during the study period (1995-2012), and reached about 9.1 million tons during the third period (2007-2012) and is growing at about 323.4 thousand tons per year. 21-Average Egypt’s imports of wheat was estimated at about 6.624 million tons during the study period (1995-2012), and was estimated about 9.1 million tons during the third period (2007-2012) and its growing at about 323.4 thousand tons per year. 22- Egypt gets 89% of its wheat imports from five countries, and gets 98% of its imports of wheat from ten countries in the world as an average for the period (2008-2012). 23- The study explained that the most important factors influencing In the volume of Egypt’s imports of wheat Each of the amount of wheat stocks and the percentage of the average annual farm gate price with the average annual price of US wheat exports. The fifth chapter discusses the use of an econometric model for analysis of interlocking economic relationships affecting in wheat production in Egypt and are influenced by them, Model results explained Priority Simultaneous Equation Model to predict the values of economic variables compared with the regression model. The study predicted economic variables affecting wheat production as follows: 1- National wheat production volume may will bring about 8.88 million tons in 2015 and is expected to increase to about 9.66 million tons in 2020, up 6%, with an average 9.11 million tons during the forecast period (2013-2020). 2- The annual per capita consumption of wheat may will increase the volume to about 190 kg / year, Then increasing to about 196 kg / year, an average of 192 kg /year during the forecast period. 3- Wheat stock size may will increase to about 6.15 million tons in 2015 and is expected to increase to about 7.45 million tons to 2020, an increase of approximately 21.1%, an average of 6.54 million tons during the forecast period. 4- The volume of wheat imports may will increase to about 9.97 million tons in 2015 as the study predicted upwards to about 11.4 million tons in 2020, up an estimated 14.3%, an average of 10.4 million tons during the forecast period. 5- The size of the national wheat consumption may will increase by about 16.8 million tons in 2015 and then rising to around 18.5 million tones in 2020, up an estimated 10.1%, with an average estimated at 17.3 million tons during the forecast period. The Recommendations: Based on the results of the study recommends vertical expansion in wheat production through 1- Improve productivity by bringing high-yield wheat varieties replace lowproductivity varieties in the governorates of Egypt. 2- Targeting specific time programs to produce specific amounts of seed in specific times according entire target area to the needs of wheat production in the governorates of Egypt and continue to produce increasingly productive seeds annually proportionate quantities with the area planted with wheat annually. 3- So as not to deteriorate self-sufficiency ratio in the short and medium term the state should support wheat researches, production of seeds and agricultural extension to reduce the significant difference between productivity in guiding fields and farmers’ fields. 4- Expansion of the area planted to wheat in the old lands to an increase in the amount of wheat production further expansion of cultivated lands outside the Valley and Delta because the productivity higher in the first than the second. 5- Continue to price policy that stimulate farmers to growing wheat compared to competing crops in the winter season, especially clover yield by raising the prices of receipt of wheat crop ensure profitability superiority wheat crop on anything else other crops. 6- Any improvement occurs to production of clover green fodder crop will necessarily affect positively on the area planted to wheat, the study showed the presence of huge amounts of plant waste broken and contaminated the environment, can be invested through the establishment of a national project to recycle the waste and turn it into an alternative feed at least partially for clover allowing extra area in the old lands for the cultivation of wheat crop, with the recommendation to improve the yield of clover production in which we can provide part clover area of wheat cultivation also. 7- Study recommends diversifying the sources of Egypt’s imports from the world wheat. 8- Raise wheat strategic stockpile volume which was estimated at 5.3 million tons during the third period (2007-2012) to about 7.63 million tons at least and raise food security coefficient of about 0.5 which would require increasing the capacity of the wheat storage silos in Egypt and the consequent reduction of volume wheat cultivated gap and raise the selfsufficiency ratio. |